The Scum at the Top
Commentary on the Rats in Washington
Fidel Castro Fades Out. Tropical Taliban Next?
By Bernd Debusmann, Special Correspondent
Reuters
© September 17, 2006
No matter whether Fidel Castro returns to office
or not, diplomats and dissidents say the post-Fidel
era has already begun and some foresee an
ideological tug of war between "tropical Taliban"
and proponents of Chinese-style economic reforms.
Castro, 80, handed over power to his brother Raul,
75, on July 31 after undergoing emergency surgery
for intestinal bleeding blamed on overwork. While
officials said the elder Castro was recovering well,
he was too ill to make an appearance at a summit of
116 Third World countries in Havana last week.
The Castro brothers hold world records for years
in power: Fidel is the world's longest-serving
head of government, Raul the longest-serving
defense minister -- both 47 years.
"It is difficult to envisage Fidel running the
country as he used to, and with the same vigor,"
said a Latin American diplomat. "He is on the way
to becoming a symbol and a figurehead."
More than 70 percent of Cuba's 11 million population
were born after Fidel Castro seized power in 1959
and tend to be reluctant to talk about a future
without him. But a number of dissidents speak out
frankly and on the record.
"Cuba has not been the same since July 31," said
Miriam Leiva, a co-founder of the Ladies in White,
a group of women whose husbands were arrested,
tried and convicted in a large-scale crackdown
on dissidents three years ago.
Her husband, economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe,
was released for health reasons 19 months later.
Most of the others are still in prison and the
Ladies in White stage a silent protest march
every Sunday. Espinosa Chepe and Leiva aired
their views in an interview in their tiny
apartment in Havana.
Both see economic reforms managed by the
Cuban Armed Forces headed by Raul Castro as
the best hope for the near future, a sentiment
echoed privately by many Cubans who tend to
complain more vociferously about economic misery
than the political system.
TROPICAL TALIBAN
"What would be disastrous would be for the
tropical Taliban to run the country," Espinosa
Chepe said. The phrase refers to a younger
generation of officials mentored personally
by Fidel Castro.
The phrase Taliban is borrowed from the Afghan
militants whose narrow interpretation of Islam
caused them to ban music and stone adulterers
to death.
To hear Cubans tell it, the list of true believers
includes Otto Rivero, vice president of the
Council of Ministers for the Battle of Ideas,
Hassan Perez, vice president of the Union of
Communists, Miriam Yanet Martin, president of
the Jose Marti pioneers youth group and Foreign
Minister Felipe Perez Roque.
They are all in their 30s and early 40s and
their views are reflected by a banner along
Havana's fabled Malecon seafront boulevard.
"Fidel Forever!" it says.
The true believers versus potential economic
reformers scenario has gained so much currency
it prompted questions at a news conference
during the non-aligned summit that ended on
Saturday.
Economy Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez, responding
to a reporter's question, said: "In the
hypothetical case that Comandante Fidel remains
ill, would there be a change in Cuban policy
toward a market opening? I can categorically
say that is not foreseen, the Cuban people do
not want that."
CLOWNS AND MASSEURS
Castro initiated a limited economic opening in
the early 1990s but rolled it back three years
ago, cutting licenses for services that private
individuals can provide, including clowns and
masseurs.
Why do some Cubans place their hopes for reforms
on the Armed Forces? They were the first to
introduce capitalist business practices into
Cuba and now control technology and computing
firms, beach resort hotels, car rental firms,
an airline, a fleet of buses and a large retail
chain.
The Cuban sugar industry is run by a general,
as is the ports administration and the lucrative
cigar industry.
"It is difficult to see political change but
Raul will have to introduce economic reforms if
he wants to avoid a social explosion," said
Espinosa Chepe, the dissident economist. "The
Armed Forces are the best organized entity in
the country and much more flexible than any other."
Outside experts agree the Armed Forces would
be a better agent of change, if it were to come,
than any other institution. "Unlike the Communist
Party, the armed forces are widely popular," said
Hal Klepak, a history professor at the Royal
Military Institute of Canada and author of a book
on the Cuban military.
Change in Havana, diplomats say, depends to a
considerable degree on attitudes in Washington
and Miami, where Cuban exiles have been
relentlessly hostile toward Castro and
instrumental in maintaining a 44-year-old
economic boycott of Cuba.
Critics of the embargo, including prominent
dissidents, see it as a chief reason for Castro's
long survival. "Without it, he wouldn't have
been able to foster nationalism the way he did.
Without it, he couldn't have blamed the U.S.
for his disastrous policies," said Espinosa
Chepe.
Most of the world agrees. The embargo is
regularly put to a vote at the United Nations.
Last year, the margin was 182 in favor of a
resolution to end the embargo, four against.
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January 15, 2007