The Scum at the Top

Commentary on the Rats in Washington




More secure than Bush is saying

By Dave Hage
StarTribune
© January 16, 2005
Page AA5

I woke up the other morning to hear a BBC Radio reporter discussing President Bush and America's "bankrupt Social Security program."

And I thought: Oh no, the plan is working.

The plan, of course, is a White House strategy to push private retirement accounts by convincing Americans that Social Security is on the brink of collapse.

"If you're 20 years old, or in your mid-20s, and you're beginning to work, I want you to think about a Social Security system that will be flat bust, bankrupt, unless the United States Congress has got the willingness to act now," President Bush told an audience in Washington last Tuesday.

He wasn't improvising. Last week the Associated Press obtained an internal White House memo arguing that Congress will never adopt the president's plan for private retirement accounts unless Bush can convince voters that Social Security is "heading toward an iceberg." The dangers facing Social Security must be "seared into the public consciousness," the memo said.

Scare tactics like this worked three years ago, when the administration was trying to sell voters on a preemptive war in Iraq. That's because most Americans simply didn't have the facts to evaluate Bush's claims about Saddam Hussein.

With Social Security, however, we have very good information and it completely contradicts the White House crisis scenario. Social Security is running very large surpluses at the moment and it will have enough money to pay full benefits until the year 2042. By then the median baby boomer will be 20 years into retirement. After that, it will still have funds to pay about 70 percent of promised benefits. This isn't liberal propaganda. It's from the annual report of the Social Security trustees, several of them Bush appointees. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan and trusted forecasting agency, says Social Security will be able to pay more like 80 percent of promised benefits long after 2050.

This is not a system that will be "flat broke" when today's 20-somethings retire.

To be fair, there is a grain of truth at the heart of the president's argument. As baby boomers reach their 60s, the number of younger workers supporting each retiree will dwindle rapidly. After 2042 or so, Social Security will face a solvency gap.

But the president surely knows two things. First, his plan allowing workers to divert Social Security taxes into personal retirement accounts wouldn't fix that problem; it would accelerate the date of Social Security's insolvency. Second, respected experts all over Washington have proposed workable plans to close the solvency gap. Robert Ball, a former Social Security commissioner, has devised one plan, and Rep. David Obey, D-Wis., has introduced it in Congress. Robert Reischauer, a former CBO director, and Henry Aaron, a respected labor economist, have proposed another. Both would involve modest sacrifices by working baby boomers, but I don't see why we're not up to the task. Especially when the White House alternative is to borrow $2 trillion and shift the whole problem to future generations.

What's infuriating about the Bush strategy is that it exploits two great American character flaws, cynicism and greed.

Since the 1980s or so, Americans have come to believe that government can't do anything right. But Social Security has been a huge success. Between 1959 and 2000, it cut the poverty rate of elderly Americans by more than two-thirds, from 35 percent to 10 percent. When it needed mid-course corrections, in 1977 and 1983, Congress made them.

Americans also love the idea of controlling their own money and building their own retirement accounts. But that's exactly what they do today. The number of workers with 401(k)s has tripled over the last two decades, to 45 million, and Americans derive two-thirds of their retirement income from private pensions and savings. Social Security is just the third leg of the stool -- the insurance leg that retirees can depend on if everything else goes wrong.

"Most younger people in America think they'll never see a dime from Social Security," Bush told another audience recently.

Well, fine. But Congress shouldn't dismantle a program that serves 45 million Americans because of what young people think, especially when those young people have their facts wrong. And the president shouldn't use his bully pulpit to reinforce those misconceptions.


Dave Hage is a Star Tribune editorial writer.
He is at dhage@startribune.com.






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